Human influence has reached the abyss: according to WCMC, a 0.32-degreeC increase in abyssal temperature in 35 years has been attributed to climate change associated with human activities.

Most scientists agree that greenhouse warming of the planet will lead to a general increase in regional temperature and sea-level rise, changes in precipitation pattern and regional circulation. These will in turn affect surface and groundwater flow and river discharge; surface and groundwater availability; the incidence of floods and sedimentation; the movement of marine water masses (waves, tides and currents); the intensity and tracks of tropical cyclones; natural ecosystems.

They will also affect human activities, especially in the coastal zone, including changes to agriculture, fishing, industry, tourism and the quality of life

Rising tides

Melting glaciers and the thermal expansion of sea water are, in the opinion of many scientists, already raising sea levels and threatening low-lying coastal areas and small islands. The global mean sea level has already risen by 10-15 cm during the past century. Global warming may well cause a further rise of 50 cm by the year 2100.

Most at risk are the unprotected, densely populated coastal regions of some of the world's poorest countries, such as Bangladesh, and particularly small island states such as the Maldives.

Global task teams

These alarming findings led UNEP to set up Regional Task Teams for the Regional Seas, and two Global Task Teams on coral reefs and mangroves. The work of the nine regional teams covers 109 countries and includes contributions by approximately 200 specialists from a wide range of disciplines.

The results, published as Regional Seas Reports and Studies No. 140 (1992)*, demonstrate the diversity and significance of potential impacts to all sectors of human activity, and in particular for freshwater management, agriculture, fisheries and forestry. The work further documents the impact of climate change on the structure and functioning of natural ecosystems. Summary of main findings.

Read about UNEP's approach to climate change in Our Planet 9.6 - November 1998.
The South Pacific Sea Level and Climate Change Newsletter is available from SPREP.
Find out about the Pacific Islands Climate Change Conference (3-7 April 2000, Rarotonga, Cook Islands).

*RSRS 140  (E)  UNEP: Potential impacts of expected climate change on coastal and near-shore environment.  UNEP Regional Seas Reports and Studies No. 140.  UNEP, 1992.  (18 pages). Order from EarthPrint.